Turkey adopted curtailment procedure

17 Oca

Iranian gas flows to Turkey decreased to 17 mcm from the monthly average of 28 mcm/day on December 7-8 but transmission system operator BOTAŞ sent curtailment orders to the major gas fired power plants.

(Emre Ertürk – 10.12.2015 / 19:00) The security of natural gas supply to Turkey will be one of the hottest topics of the Turkish energy market this winter. The 40% decrease in the Iranian gas flows to Turkey triggered the transmission system operator BOTAS to implement urgent precautions to keep the system alive.

On December 7 Monday, the gas flow from Iran dropped down to 19.9 mcm/day and 17 mcm/day on December 8, where the average gas flows from Iran for the first 6 days of December is 28.3 mcm/day.

Following the reduction in the Iranian gas flows, BOTAŞ implemented the curtailment procedure and sent orders to the mid and large scale gas fired power plants that have gas purchase contracts with BOTAŞ. The 50% curtailment started as of 08:00 a.m. on December 10, despite the restricted10 mcm/day, which corresponds nearly the 5% of Turkey’s daily consumption.

The gas fired thermal power plants, that received the curtailment order from BOTAŞ are as follows:

Aksa Enerji’s Antalya CCGT, Akenerji’s Erzin CCGT, Lİmak’s Hamitabat Plant, Cengiz Enerji’s Samsun CCGT, Unit Group’s Gebze CCGT. 

The proclamations of the parties about the restriction were also questioned, too. The reason behind the reduction in Iranian gas flows was the peak demand in Iran according to BOTAŞ’s written statement on December 9. But according to Iranian officials, the failure in the compression station at Turkish side caused the reduction.

Turkey, having problems with Russian Federation and discussing heavily the security of Russian gas supplies, which is more than the half of the country’s annual gas demand, firstly experienced the Iranian gas flow reduction.

While decreasing the volumes from the Iranian pipeline, Turkey received 43.88 mcm/day on December 7 and 44.09 on December 8 from the West Line, which deliveres Russian gas to Turkey via Eastern Europe.

Peak demand to hit 250 mcm/day

Turkey’s average annual gas demand growth rate reached 8% since 2004 but the growth rate significantly decreased in 2013 and the following years. Despite the slowdown in the demand, Turkey’s daily peak demand increased significantly and this year, it is expected to hit 250 mcm/day, as the demand had reached 195 mcm/day when Marmara and Central Anatolia regions hare having mild winter conditions, in the first 10 days of December.

Obstacles in front of the curtailment management

  • Non-transparent information and data sharing strategy of BOTAŞ
  • Limited information released by the Ministry of energy and the regulator EMRA
  • Manipulation on the market raised by the local and foreign media companies, based on rumours and unconfirmed information.
  • Indictments on implementing the congestion management rules with discrimination.
  • BOTAŞ’s inadequate entry capacity which has not been upgraded to a certain level despite the urgent requirements

(Enerji IQ – 9.12.2015) Turkey based think-tank Hazar Strategy Institute’s Coordinator for the Istanbul Energy Programme, Emin Emrah Danış told Enerji IQ that, it is not likely for Russia to reduce the amount of natural gas that Turkey delivers. Danış emphasized the dramatic drop in the Gazprom’s revenues with the below figures:

“The decreasing oil and gas prices negatively effected the Gazprom’s revenues and USD61.8 billon gas export revenue at 2013, drooped down to USD50.6 billion at 2014 and expected to hit USD36-37 billion at the end of 2015. According to the forecasts, gas export revenues of Gazprom will be around USD32 billion.”

Emin Emrah Danış also stated that the Russian gas deliveries from the West Line between January 1 and December 7 reached 10.3 bcm, which is lower than that of 2013 and 2014.

Daily Russian gas deliveries from West Line